Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
