An Prediction Market User Earned $436,000 from Bets on Maduro's Downfall.
A bettor profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was made public, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from confidential information of the US operation.
Changing Odds in Forecasts
Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the leader would be removed from office by the close of the month increased in the period preceding President Donald Trump stated on January 3rd that the president had been seized.
One account, which registered on the site recently and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $436K from a starting bet of $32,537.
The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification.
Market Signals Before Public Statement
Trading information shows that participants estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just under 7% in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd.
But the odds had increased to over 10% by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the first hours of January 3rd, indicating a sharp shift in positions immediately prior to the public announcement was made.
"This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information," said Dennis Kelleher.
Several of other individuals also profited large payouts from similar wagers.
Political Attention Intensifies
Some lawmakers are starting to take note.
A new rule presented on Monday aims to prohibit federal workers from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager.
The Prediction Market Landscape
Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to political events.
Prediction markets were examined under the previous administration. However it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency.
Insider trading is a crime in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting space.
A company executive for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."
